U.S.A. -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates April 2021 US firearms unit sales at just over 1.8 million units, a year-over-year increase of 2.1% from April 2020.
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SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, while the FBI’s raw numbers (for April, 3,485,016) increased year-over-year by 21.1%, this is largely due to background checks unrelated to end-user sales.
As a case in point, in April the state of Illinois conducted about 910,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user unit sales at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 50,000. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the true number of sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “the April 2021 number of just over 1.8 million firearms sold is large, in fact it is the largest April figure on record. While the year-over-year percentage increase of 2.1% is relatively modest, it nonetheless represents growth on top of last year’s covid-19 panic-driven sales boom. Handgun sales declined in April 2021 relative to the same month last year, so that long-gun sales drove this April’s overall increase.”
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Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidence-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media.
Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)